These are the films or performances I think will win. Not necessarily who should win.
Let’s dig into that a bit.
Will Smith has been annointed. He’s going to win. Of these five nominees, I’d place him fourth on my list. Bardem doesn’t belong here. That’s anotber conversation. I would have picked Andrew Garfield. He was electric in tick tick… Boom!
For Best Actress Jessica Chastain has the momentum and well that’s what this voting is about. The only movie on this list that I’ve seen is The Lost Daughter and Olivia Coleman was brilliant.. she made me care about a generally terrible person. I think Kristen Stewart has done a lot of great, unique work since Twilight and is probably deserving here.
Troy Kotsur is going to win and should win.
Same with Arianna DeBose, though Aunjanue Ellis was my favorite part of King Richard.
I loved Mitchells Versus The Machines. I think it was the favorite for a long time, the Encanto seemed to surge ahead. But Mitchells won the “Annie” for animated feature. So anything could happen here.
In documentary feature, I’ve only seen Summer of Soul which is fantastic and will probably win.
I have not seen any of the Documentary Shorts, but I hear great things about The Queen of Basketball. Kobe has an Oscar.. time for Steph Curry and Shaq to get theirs.
The techinal awards (that no one will see presented live.. grrr) will all go to Dune. I just watched it for the third time. The sound, the production design, the editing and visual effects were the best I saw in any movie. The Power of the Dog could take Editing, but probably not.
Costume will go to Cruella, but I’d love to see West Side Story win. The colors and period correct costumes blew me away.
Make up will go to The Eyes of Tammy Faye.. that’s a large reason Chastain will win best actress.
Billie Eilish and Finneas will win their first Oscar. It’s a great song. Encanto would have won but they nominated the wrong song. “Bruno” should have gotten the nod.
Score is just about a coin flip for me. I think Dune will win, but I was recently listening to Power of the Dog and Jonny Greenwood’s music made me visualize the film all over again. But Hans Zimmer invented instruments, so.. yeah.. Dune.
I did not see any of the shorts so I’m not going to pick or make a guess.
Adapted Screenplay is a very tough category. All 5 nominees are great adaptations. Drive My Car could walk way with it, but I think the Academy will want to find some way to honor Maggie Gyllenhaal for her great work on her first film.. and it will be in this category.
Original Screenplay is an easy call for me. The Worst Person in the World (TWPITW) was one of my top 5 favorite movies on 2021. Renate Reinsve should have gotten a best actress nomination (bye Nicole Kidman). Here’s where they could give it recognition. But I don’t think they will. I think it’s going to be Licorice Pizza and if it is Don’t Look Up I cannot be responsible for my actions.
Two of my favorite films of 2021 are nominated in International Feature. TWPITW and Drive My Car are both outstanding. If there’s even a hint among voters that Drive My Car could win best picture, then Joachim Trier’s film could win. Won’t happen. Give it to Drive My Car.
Director is another tough choice. Other than I don’t know why Brannagh is in this, a spot that should have gone to Denis Villeneuve for Dune. Jane Campion is most likely to win. But don’t sleep on Ryusuke Hamaguchi. The Academy may decide Drive My Car deserves more than one Oscar.
Now the biggie. There are so many great movies that didn’t even make the cut here. C’mon C’mon, Red Rocket, The Lost Daughter, The Green Knight, The Last Duel are just a few. Until January this looked like a sure thing for The Power of the Dog. Then a funny thing happened. the SAG award went to CODA (TPOTD wasn’t nominated for best ensemble). Then CODA won again at the WGA’s, a BAFTA for Screenplay and finally the PGA for best film. That is undeniable momentum And that means it could win. I think that is the most likely scenario at this point. The other thing about Best Picture voting is it is ranked choice. So while not many people could vote CODA number one, enough could pick it number two or three to tip the scales in its favor. Plus, there doesn’t seem to be a consensus number one. TPOTD and Dune could steal number 1 votes from each other opening the door a little more for CODA.
My choice would be Drive My Car. If you can keep me interested in a three hour long movie where a lot of the action is just driving in a car and that movie is not just in Japanese, but Mandarin, English and Korean Sign Language.. well my hat is off to you. It is a beatiful film about loss and grief and was moving in so many ways. So that’s my pick. While CODA will win, I hope Drive My Car pulls an upset.
If you’re read this far, you deserve an Oscar too.
Hollywood And Whine 