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OSCARS 2024 PREDCITIONS

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I know it’s been a while.

Sorry.

 

As I write this the 2024 Oscars are just 3 days away. Even though I have not posted full reviews for all the Best Picture nominees I have seen all 10.

Rather than try to write full reviews of each of them, I decided to make 2 lists… which films I think should win and which I believe will win with brief discussions about some of the nominees. A few thoughts before the lists.

 

2023 was a fabulous year for film. The 10 movies chosen by the Academy are all wonderful, but each for different reasons. How boring would it be if they were all similar films? Very is the only right answer. The 10 Best Picture nominees leave out some of my most beloved films of the year. JOHN WICK CHAPTER 4, MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – DEAD RECKONING PART 1, HELLO GOD IT’S ME MARGARET, HOW TO BLOW UP A PIPELINE, BLACKBERRY, AIR, THE KILLER, SPIDER=MAN: ACROSS THE SPIDER-VERSE, MAY DECEMBER, YOU HURT MY FEELINGS, ASTEROID CITY. You get the idea. What a year for movies. Time will tell if it is considered alongside years like 1975, 1999 or 2007. Look those up. Incredible movie years. But 2023 had great movies by some of history’s best filmmakers.

 

Ok on to the list making.

 

First which film will win best picture and what I believe would be the rankings if the Academy ever released the ranked choice results (come on Academy. Do it!!)

 

  1. Oppenheimer
  2. The Zone of Interest
  3. Killers of the Flower Moon
  4. The Holdovers
  5. American Fiction
  6. Barbie
  7. Anatomy of a Fall
  8. Poor Things
  9. Past Lives

10.Maestro

 

Ok, let’s take a brief deep dive into why I think that’s the way most voters will cast their ballots.

 

Oppenheimer has won ever precursor award thus far. So, I’m not really going on limb here. The Golden Globes, The Producers Guild, The SAG Award for best cast. If it doesn’t walk away with Best Picture, it would be an enormous upset. Not an upset like Green Book beating Roma, Black Panther, BlacKkKlansman or A Star is Born… or Shakespeare in Love beating Saving Private Ryan. Those were upsets because looking at those movies through the lens of history, they were inferior to what should have won. That is not the case this year. If Oppenheimer by some twist of fate does lose, it will lose to an excellent film. Which film could pull that unlikely upset?

The Zone of Interest is getting a lot of chatter since the nominations were announced. It won The Palm D’or at Cannes and a lot of hoity toity film folks think it’s brilliant.

People just love The Holdovers. It’s a throwback kind of movie that makes them feel warm and fuzzy. Da’Vine Joy Randolph will win Best Supporting Actress and Paul Giamatti would be the choice for Best Actor if not for Cillian Murphy.

Sorry Barbie lovers. It’s a fun film. But it has not gotten any love this awards season. I think it will probably walk away with Adapted Screenplay, and that will be Greta Gerwig’s consolation prize.

Maestro probably should not have been nominated; the true snub of the Oscars was May December being passed over. I don’t think anyone got it and I don’t think director Todd Haynes really cares.

 

Now on to list number 2. This is who I would pick if I had a vote, and the order in which I would pick them.

 

  1. The Zone of Interest
  2. Past Lives
  3. Oppenheimer
  4. Killers of the Flower Moon
  5. Anatomy of a Fall
  6. Poor Things
  7. The Holdovers
  8. American Fiction
  9. Barbie

10.Maestro

I guess I’m one of those “Hoity Toity” film people.

Of all the films I’ve only re-watched 3. Oppenheimer, The Holdovers and Barbie. They are very rewatchable films. I was glued to my chair through all 3 hours of Oppenheimer. It’s great. But for me it was not the “best”.

 

Since I saw Past Lives last June I had it at the top of my Best Films of 2023 list. Celine Song’s movie about connection over generations, love and letting was overwhelmingly powerful. It’s was good until the final scene, then that ending made it great. It is one of the best endings of a movie I have ever seen. And to have a first-time director like Song pull that off was incredible. It still makes me teary when I think about it. Greta Lee’s performance also blew me away. I remember sitting in the theater after the movie ended and just feeling overwhelmed. I’ve thought about it now for 6 months and for me that is the mark of a great film. One that sticks with you and makes you think.

 

Then I saw The Zone of Interest. When I went into it, I thought it was a film that fell into the “should” see category like 12 Years a Slave or Schindler’s List. Great movies that I’m glad I watched but I never want to revisit because of the subject matter and the way it was handled. Now it is in my “I can’t wait to see it again” list.

 

Jonathan Glazer’s film about Auschwitz commandant Rudolf Höss and his family living just outside the walls of the death camp sounds like a movie you would never want to watch once, never mind again. But it is such a genius piece of art that it demands viewing over and over again. Like Past Lives, it falls into the “movie I keep thinking about” category. Glazer makes the audience observers to the family’s life, a fly on the wall. There is only one scene where you actually see the brutality of Auschwitz. But you know it is there throughout the movie. You hear the sounds of the death camp. The industrial hum, the occasional gunshot and frequent screaming. You see the buildings just beyond the walls of the Höss home and the smoke rising above it all. Then the family living what they perceive as a normal life despite all that is chilling. It really feels like a horror movie. The evil is there, you feel it but you don’t really see it.

 

All that is why I recently moved The Zone of Interest to the top of my list. The rest of the films are excellent and all deserve nominations. Anatomy of a Fall is a thrilling courtroom drama. American Fiction is a perfectly acted, biting satire. The Holdovers is also brilliantly acted and nostalgic. Poor Things is weird and wonderful and Emma Stone is just behind Lily Gladstone in the Best Actress race. Killers of the Flower Moon is another wonderfully acted movie that may be just too long. Barbie is just fun. But The Zone of Interest and Past Lives are a notch above for me. And Glazer’s movie bold choices push it just over the top.

 

If you want to read very brief reviews of all 10 movies check out my Letterboxd account. I have created a  Letterboxd list that ranks them.

 

And as Moviefone used to say… SEE YOU AT THE MOVIES.